Mark Ricth and the Trifecta of Regret

I think the football fortunes of the Georgia Bulldogs under Mark Ricth can be summed up in three words:  shoulda; coulda; and, woulda.  Of course, the proper syntax would be “should have”, “could have”, and “would have”, but I’m going to use the local vernacular, and a conversational style as well.  Also note that two of the three words often appear in conjunction with each other.

 

“In his first year, and first head coaching job, I woulda been happy with just about anything.  So, an 8-4 record, and a win over Tennessee, is pretty nice.”

“In 2002, #5 Georgia shoulda beaten #22 Florida, and 1st year head coach, Ron Zook.  Then maybe our 2^nd year coach woulda been leading us to a National Championship, instead of just the SEC Championship.”  (2^nd year coach, Jim Tressel won it all with Ohio State that year.)

“I know we won the East, and two of our three loses in 2003 were to the eventual national champion, LSU, under Coach Nick Saban in his 4^th season, but we really shoulda beaten Florida that year.”

“Ok, in 2004 maybe #5 UGA coulda beaten #3 Auburn; maybe not.  But, there’s no way we shoulda lost the game, and the East, to #17 Tennessee when we were ranked #3 at the time.”

“I wish we coulda live up to our rankings in 2005.  Instead, we lost to #16 Florida when we were ranked #4.  #15 Auburn beat us when we were ranked #9.  And then #11 West Virginia took a lot of the luster off of our SEC title, and #8 ranking, by beating us in the Sugar Bowl.”

“Yes, Florida beat us again, and won the National Championship in 2006 in Urban Meyer’s 2^nd season.  But, we coulda beaten Tennessee, and there’s no way we shoulda lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and ended up 4^th in the East.”

“If we coulda won either the South Carolina or the Tennessee game in 2007, then we woulda been SEC East champs, playing eventual National Champion LSU, and Les Miles in his 3^rd season.  Instead, we lost to two unranked teams while we were ranked #11 and #12.”

“2008 was the year that coulda been; preseason #1 in both the AP and the Coaches’ poll.  But, we’d already dropped to #3 before #8 Alabama hung 21 points on us in the first half of our first loss.  Then, #5 Florida whips us by 39 on the way to their 2^nd National Championship in three years.  And being ranked #13 apparently didn’t help in our loss to #18 Georgia Tech to end the regular season.”

“In 2009, Nick Saban led Alabama to a National Championship in his 3^rd season as the Tide’s head coach.  Meanwhile, we had our first five-loss season under Coach Ritch.  I know Oklahoma State, LSU, and Florida were ranked #9, #4, and #1 respectively when we lost to them; but, lower ranked, and even unranked, teams seem to be able to beat us when we have the higher ranking.  We coulda won at least one of those games.  And, we shoulda beaten Tennessee and Kentucky.”

“Is there’s anything we coulda done in 2010 that woulda made a difference.  While Gene Chizik is leading Auburn to the National Championship in only his 2^nd season as head coach, we stumbled to a 6-7 record in Coach Ricth’s 10^th year.  We lost to Central Florida in a bowl game in Memphis.  Who coulda imagined that?!”

“In 2011, despite opening loses to Boise State and South Carolina, 10-2 and East Champions (for the 1^st time in six years) looked pretty good at the time.  However, back-to-back losses in the SEC Championship and the Outback Bowl left us with a final record 10-4, and one more year of shoulda and coulda.”  (Meanwhile, across the state line to the west, the Tide was winning its 2^nd National Championship in three years.)

“Ahhh, the year 2012; the ultimate coulda and woulda season.  I’m not talking about the ‘How the @#$%& did we lose 35-7 to South Carolina?!’ game.  I’m talking about the SEC Championship game against Alabama.  How many times have you heard, or said, ‘If we coulda made that last completion, we woulda been playing Notre Dame in the National Championship.  And, we woulda beaten them!’”  (Instead, Coach Saban and Alabama go on to win their 2^nd national title in a row, and their 3^rd in four seasons.)

“Who woulda picked Missouri to win the Eastern Division in 2013, their second year in the SEC?  Maybe those same people picked us to lose to Mizzou, and Vanderbilt, on the way to the second 8-5 season in four years under Coach Ricth.  However, I’m not sure anyone woulda picked Auburn to play in its 2^nd National Championship in four years, under 1^st year coach, Gus Malzahn. But, they did!”

 

“Even though we hammered eventual East champion, Missouri 35-0, and shoulda been in control of our own destiny in 2014, we weren’t.  You woulda thought that being ranked in the top 10 meant that we coulda beaten either #24 South Carolina or unranked Florida.  Instead, they both beat us, and knocked us down to 2^nd in the East for the 5^th time in 14 years under Coach Ricth.”

“Hey, 9-3 doesn’t look that bad this year does it?  We lost to eventual West champ, and current #2, Alabama.  Then we lost our star back, and Heisman hopeful, on the first offensive play of our lost to Tennessee.  That’s a game we coulda won.  And then our last loss was to the eventual East champ, Florida, and 1^st year head coach, Jim McElwain.  But, I think we shoulda had wins against more than just two teams with winning records:  Southern, out of the SWAC; and, Georgia Southern out of the Sun Belt.”

I'd Rather Talk Football Than World Affairs Right Now

Almost immediately after Georgia’s victory over Auburn yesterday, the discussion turned to how we could end up with another 10-win season, if we beat Ga. Southern, Tech, and our bowl game opponent.  The Dawgs’ overall record is currently 7-3; 5-3 in conference play.  And, five years from now a 10-3 mark would probably look pretty good to a lot of people. [Aside - I think a little bit of the aura of 10 wins has been lost ever since we went from an 11 game regular season, plus a bowl game (10-2 = 83%), to a 12 game regular season (10-3 = 77%).]  However, if you look a little deeper right now, some disappointing statistics are revealed. 

As it stands today, Georgia’s five SEC wins are against the bottom four teams in the eastern division, and the last place team from the west.  Those five teams are currently 8-27 in conference play; with seven of those eight wins the result of beating each other.  None of the five can finish the season with a winning record in the conference.  And when you look at the overall record, it doesn’t get much better either.  Out of Georgia’s seven victories so far, only one is against a team with a winning record.  Southern University, out of the SWAC, is 6-4 with one regular season game left on its schedule. 

And yes, I know that two of our three loses were to the eastern division champ (#11 in the CFP) and the presumptive western division champ (#2 in the CFP), and both of those teams are currently 9-1.  And while I appreciates a “quality lose” as much as the next person, it isn’t really relevant to my theory, which is that one of the best ways to judge a team is to look at the winning percentage of the teams they’ve beaten.

IF (and yes, the “if” is in all caps on purpose) UGA, Auburn and Mizzou all win their remaining games, the Dawgs will finish the regular season at 9-3, with four victories over teams with a winning record.  But, if Auburn and Mizzou lose either one of their two remaining games, then the number drops to two.  And, if the Dawgs don’t beat Ga. Southern, the number of victories over teams with winning records remains at one, and Georgia’s regular season record would be 8-4.  Given that we’re 1-3 against teams with winning records so far this season, I wouldn’t be surprised (disappointed, but not surprised) to see us finish 9-4, or even 8-5.

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs, version 2.1

OK, I think I've really got it this time.  The only change from version 2.0 is you take the number of wins and double it.  Everything else remains the same.

            So, with no further ado, here’s my final bracket:

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (23.1 PR) vs. #8 Arizona (15.5 PR)

#2 FSU (22.9 PR) vs. #7 Miss State (16.1 PR)

#3 Oregon (20.1 PR) vs. #6 TCU (16.6 PR)

#4 Ohio State (18.2 PR) vs. #5 Mizzou (17.3 PR)

Just on the outside looking in are #9 Baylor (15.2 PR), and #10 Ole Miss (14.5 PR).

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs, version 2.0

The criteria used to pick the eight teams would still be wins and losses (W/L), strength of schedule (SOS), and conference championship participation (CCP).  As stated in my first blog, the W/L of a team are easy to determine.  And, the SOS is still determined by wins and losses of opponents and the opponents of a team's opponents.  

However, one issue to be resolved, in developing a more accurate SOS rating going forward, is accounting for games against Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams.  I’d use a system that I read about online:  take that season’s cumulative win/loss record of all the FCS teams vs. Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams, and multiple it by 0.1.  For example, if that cumulative record was 28-76, then a record of 2.8 wins and 7.6 loses would be assigned to every FCS team that a FBS team played.

Then, as before, you take a team’s SOS ranking, multiple it by 0.1, add it to their losses, and then subtract it from their wins.  Now, here’s the major change from my first ranking system:  in every conference that has a championship game, the conference runner-up gets an additional 1.5.  Otherwise, the runner-up would end up with a lower play-off rating (PR) as a result of winning their division, but losing the conference title game.  The conference champion gets an additional 0.5, instead of 1.0 also. 

All that being said, here is my revised bracket, using the predictionmachine.com SOS rankings, effective Dec. 19^th, 2014:

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.1 PR) vs. T-#8 Arizona (5.5 PR)

#2 FSU (9.9 PR) vs. #7 TCU (5.6 PR)

#3 Oregon (8.1 PR) vs. #6 Miss. State (6.1 PR)

#4 Mizzou (7.3 PR) vs. #5 Ohio State (6.2 PR)

T-#8 Ole Miss (5.5 PR) is out under the 2^nd tie-breaker - division or conference winner.  (1st - head to head; 3^rd - SOS)  And, 10-3, SEC runner-up, Mizzou, is ranked ahead of 12-1, Big 10 champion, Ohio State, because of OSU’s relatively weak SOS.  At 53^rd, OSU’s SOS has the same weight as 5.3 losses.  Also, with a SOS at 58^th, and no conference championship game, 11-1, Big 12 co-champion, Baylor, ends up at #12, with a 4.2 PR.  That puts them behind #10 Georgia Tech (5.0 PR), and #11 UGA (4.5 PR).

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs

First of all, it would be eight teams, not four.  And, the criteria used to pick those teams would be wins and losses (W/L), strength of schedule (SOS), and conference championship participation (CCP).  

The W/L of a team are easy to determine.  The SOS would be determined by wins and losses of opponents and the opponents of a team's opponents.  After an exhaustive (i.e. five or six minute) search on the internet, the current SOS ranking that is the closest to the type I would use is predictionmachine.com. 

So, I’d take a team’s SOS ranking, multiple it by 0.1, add it to their losses, and then subtract it from their wins.  Then, the conference runner-up gets an additional 0.5, and the conference champion gets an additional 1.0, in every conference that has a championship game.  That final number would be their play-off rating (PR).  For example, Alabama’s SOS ranking is 4; multiple that by 0.1 = 0.4.  1 loss + 0.4 subtracted from 12 wins = 10.6.  Add another 1.0 for CCP  = 11.6 PR.  

Four Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.6 PR) vs. #4 Ohio State (6.8 PR)

#2 FSU (10.3 PR) vs. #3 Oregon (8.7 PR)

Same four as chosen by the committee.  However, when you go to eight teams, it changes quite a bit.

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.6 PR) vs. #8 Ole Miss (5.2 PR)

#2 FSU (10.3 PR) vs. #7 TCU (5.8)

#3 Oregon (8.7 PR) vs. #6 Miss. State (5.9 PR)

#4 Ohio State (6.8 PR) vs. #5 MIzzou (6.2 PR)

#9 Arizona (4.7 PR), #10 UGA (4.6 PR), and #11 Baylor (4.4 PR) would be left on the outside, looking in.

            What about the chance of one of the “lessor” conference champions sneaking into the play-offs, you ask?  Under my system, Conference USA champ, Marshall would have a 0.1 PR this year.  Mid-American champ, N. Illinois would have a -2.1 PR, and Mountain West champ, Boise State, would have a 2.7 PR.

Georgia Football

I've been a die-hard Bulldog fan ever since I received my acceptance letter to The University of Georgia as a graduate student, beginning in the fall of 1981. Those were halcyon days as we basked in the glow of a national championship from the season before. During my two years as a grad student, we were 21-1 during the regular season, and won back-to-back SEC titles. (We did lose both Sugar Bowls, the 2nd one being the national championship verses Penn State) Then, in my first year as an alumnus, we were 10-1-1, including a Cotton Bowl win over the previously unbeaten Texas Longhorns, knocking them out of national championship contention. 

I said all that to say, I was one of those fans who honestly expected UGA to contend for the SEC championship every year, and the national championship every third year at least. However, the intervening 30+ years have finally forced me to admit the harsh reality that Georgia’s football program is actually a solid teen’s finisher in the top 25, with an every-so-often finish in the top 10, and an occasional finish in the top five.

Regardless of the incoming recruits, returning lettermen, strength of schedule, and pre-season ranking and predictions, we always seem to end up with at least two or three loses on average. And whether it’s seven loses, or just one, there always seems to be that “How did we lose the [insert team name] game” that dashes our hopes for the season, while simultaneously generating all the “what if” scenarios, and “just wait till next year” chatter.

However, here are the cold, hard facts: since 1982, UGA has only won two SEC titles; Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU, and Tennessee have won, or shared, all the rest. And, since 1992, those same five schools have also won 11 national championships.

Please don’t misunderstand me; I’m not trying to bash UGA football, and this isn't a “fire Coach Richt” rant. There are plenty of programs, and their fans, that would love to have the level of success that we do have. I’m also not here to try and explain the “why”, or offer a quick-fix solution. I’m just acknowledging that “it is what it is” and I’m sharing about learning to accept that reality.

I will still bleed red and black. Glory, Glory to Ole’ Georgia will still make the hair on the back of my neck stand up. And, I will still reserve the right to get down on all four and bark like a dog. I've just changed my perspective a little. Now, my hope is that we’ll win a handful of SEC championships and one more national championship in my lifetime, instead of in the next five years.