If I Ran the College Football Play-offs, version 2.1

OK, I think I've really got it this time.  The only change from version 2.0 is you take the number of wins and double it.  Everything else remains the same.

            So, with no further ado, here’s my final bracket:

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (23.1 PR) vs. #8 Arizona (15.5 PR)

#2 FSU (22.9 PR) vs. #7 Miss State (16.1 PR)

#3 Oregon (20.1 PR) vs. #6 TCU (16.6 PR)

#4 Ohio State (18.2 PR) vs. #5 Mizzou (17.3 PR)

Just on the outside looking in are #9 Baylor (15.2 PR), and #10 Ole Miss (14.5 PR).

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs, version 2.0

The criteria used to pick the eight teams would still be wins and losses (W/L), strength of schedule (SOS), and conference championship participation (CCP).  As stated in my first blog, the W/L of a team are easy to determine.  And, the SOS is still determined by wins and losses of opponents and the opponents of a team's opponents.  

However, one issue to be resolved, in developing a more accurate SOS rating going forward, is accounting for games against Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams.  I’d use a system that I read about online:  take that season’s cumulative win/loss record of all the FCS teams vs. Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams, and multiple it by 0.1.  For example, if that cumulative record was 28-76, then a record of 2.8 wins and 7.6 loses would be assigned to every FCS team that a FBS team played.

Then, as before, you take a team’s SOS ranking, multiple it by 0.1, add it to their losses, and then subtract it from their wins.  Now, here’s the major change from my first ranking system:  in every conference that has a championship game, the conference runner-up gets an additional 1.5.  Otherwise, the runner-up would end up with a lower play-off rating (PR) as a result of winning their division, but losing the conference title game.  The conference champion gets an additional 0.5, instead of 1.0 also. 

All that being said, here is my revised bracket, using the predictionmachine.com SOS rankings, effective Dec. 19^th, 2014:

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.1 PR) vs. T-#8 Arizona (5.5 PR)

#2 FSU (9.9 PR) vs. #7 TCU (5.6 PR)

#3 Oregon (8.1 PR) vs. #6 Miss. State (6.1 PR)

#4 Mizzou (7.3 PR) vs. #5 Ohio State (6.2 PR)

T-#8 Ole Miss (5.5 PR) is out under the 2^nd tie-breaker - division or conference winner.  (1st - head to head; 3^rd - SOS)  And, 10-3, SEC runner-up, Mizzou, is ranked ahead of 12-1, Big 10 champion, Ohio State, because of OSU’s relatively weak SOS.  At 53^rd, OSU’s SOS has the same weight as 5.3 losses.  Also, with a SOS at 58^th, and no conference championship game, 11-1, Big 12 co-champion, Baylor, ends up at #12, with a 4.2 PR.  That puts them behind #10 Georgia Tech (5.0 PR), and #11 UGA (4.5 PR).

The Cats were gangsta before it was cool.

I learned a new phrase off the radio this morning, and in the process, I took a trip down memory lane, back to my high school band days.  Now, before you start laughing too hard (“There was this one time, at band camp…”) let me tell my story.  [Caveat - The following narrative is my personal recollection of the events as they happen, albeit through the haze of nearly four decades.  Your mileage may vary.]

I am an alumni of Valdosta High School, and like my two older brothers before me, I played trombone (maybe even the same trombone at some point) in The Marchin’ Cats.  In the 60s and 70s, the VHS marching band was a nationally recognized, and awarded, program.  Along with several state, and regional competitions, the Cats had also won The Greatest Band in Dixie Parade Competition in New Orleans, LA, twice, The Winter Nationals Marching Competition in Miami, FL, once, and The Festival of States National Field Championship in St. Petersburg, FL, once, by the time I entered high school in the fall of 1974.

At the beginning of my sophomore year, our band director of 15+ years, Frank Butenschon (“Mr. B”), announced that this would be his last year teaching at VHS.  That fall, we swept the awards in at least one, but I really think it was two, regional marching competitions.  The band then competed for a second time in The Winter Nationals Marching Competition in Miami, FL.  We took third place.  Mr. B told us later that he really couldn't argue with the judge’s choice for first place: Louisiana’s Arcadia High School; however, the runner-up, Cicero High School from New York, was now on our list.

Fast-forward to the spring of my junior year.  Mr. B had stayed at VHS for one more year, and we were competing, again, in The Festival of States National Field Championship, which was part of a three-day event, in St. Petersburg, FL.  And, guess who one of the other participating bands from around the nation happened to be?  

 

Long blog short, we won, and quite frankly, I can’t even remember what place Cicero finished.  However (circling back around to the beginning of this story), what I do remember is that Cicero used the song “America” from West Side Story as their marching cadence.  After we heard them play it for the first time, our percussion section got together under the trees across from our hotel, and figured it out in about five to ten minutes.  It became our official unofficial cadence from that moment forward. 

In other words, back in 1977, and at least 25 years before it started happening in the hip-hop culture, a bunch of high school band nerds from South Georgia “jacked their beat!”

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs

First of all, it would be eight teams, not four.  And, the criteria used to pick those teams would be wins and losses (W/L), strength of schedule (SOS), and conference championship participation (CCP).  

The W/L of a team are easy to determine.  The SOS would be determined by wins and losses of opponents and the opponents of a team's opponents.  After an exhaustive (i.e. five or six minute) search on the internet, the current SOS ranking that is the closest to the type I would use is predictionmachine.com. 

So, I’d take a team’s SOS ranking, multiple it by 0.1, add it to their losses, and then subtract it from their wins.  Then, the conference runner-up gets an additional 0.5, and the conference champion gets an additional 1.0, in every conference that has a championship game.  That final number would be their play-off rating (PR).  For example, Alabama’s SOS ranking is 4; multiple that by 0.1 = 0.4.  1 loss + 0.4 subtracted from 12 wins = 10.6.  Add another 1.0 for CCP  = 11.6 PR.  

Four Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.6 PR) vs. #4 Ohio State (6.8 PR)

#2 FSU (10.3 PR) vs. #3 Oregon (8.7 PR)

Same four as chosen by the committee.  However, when you go to eight teams, it changes quite a bit.

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.6 PR) vs. #8 Ole Miss (5.2 PR)

#2 FSU (10.3 PR) vs. #7 TCU (5.8)

#3 Oregon (8.7 PR) vs. #6 Miss. State (5.9 PR)

#4 Ohio State (6.8 PR) vs. #5 MIzzou (6.2 PR)

#9 Arizona (4.7 PR), #10 UGA (4.6 PR), and #11 Baylor (4.4 PR) would be left on the outside, looking in.

            What about the chance of one of the “lessor” conference champions sneaking into the play-offs, you ask?  Under my system, Conference USA champ, Marshall would have a 0.1 PR this year.  Mid-American champ, N. Illinois would have a -2.1 PR, and Mountain West champ, Boise State, would have a 2.7 PR.

A Modern Day Lexicon

In light of the current unrest and upheaval taking place around our country, and in an attempt to foster understanding and open avenues for dialogue, I would like to offer my interpretation of a few key words that I keep hearing being repeated over and over.  I’ll start with a more classical definition, followed by my current understanding of that word’s usage:

Jus·tice noun \ˈjəs-təs\ the maintenance or administration of what is just, especially by the impartial adjustment of conflicting claims or the assignment of merited rewards or punishments.

Justice:  the pre-determined outcome that a particular person, or group, wants in a given situation, regardless of the actual facts and evidence, or the established legal procedure.

Fair adjective \ˈfer\ marked by impartiality and honesty; free from self-interest, prejudice, or favoritism.

Fair (or fairness) - a societal condition that only exists when a particular person, or group, gets what s/he/they want.

Truth noun \ˈtrüth\ the body of true statements and propositions; the property (as of a statement) of being in accord with fact or reality.

Truth - a description of things, events, and facts put forth by a particular person, or group, to the exclusion of all other descriptions, and if necessary, the actual things, events, and facts themselves.

Racist noun \rey-sist\ a person who believes in racism (the belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and the racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race).

Racist - any person of a different skin tone, but especially white males, who disagrees with a statement, proposition, or point of view put forth by a minority.  In extreme cases, simply having a certain type of job (ex. - law enforcement), will qualify a person as a racist per se.

Georgia Football

I've been a die-hard Bulldog fan ever since I received my acceptance letter to The University of Georgia as a graduate student, beginning in the fall of 1981. Those were halcyon days as we basked in the glow of a national championship from the season before. During my two years as a grad student, we were 21-1 during the regular season, and won back-to-back SEC titles. (We did lose both Sugar Bowls, the 2nd one being the national championship verses Penn State) Then, in my first year as an alumnus, we were 10-1-1, including a Cotton Bowl win over the previously unbeaten Texas Longhorns, knocking them out of national championship contention. 

I said all that to say, I was one of those fans who honestly expected UGA to contend for the SEC championship every year, and the national championship every third year at least. However, the intervening 30+ years have finally forced me to admit the harsh reality that Georgia’s football program is actually a solid teen’s finisher in the top 25, with an every-so-often finish in the top 10, and an occasional finish in the top five.

Regardless of the incoming recruits, returning lettermen, strength of schedule, and pre-season ranking and predictions, we always seem to end up with at least two or three loses on average. And whether it’s seven loses, or just one, there always seems to be that “How did we lose the [insert team name] game” that dashes our hopes for the season, while simultaneously generating all the “what if” scenarios, and “just wait till next year” chatter.

However, here are the cold, hard facts: since 1982, UGA has only won two SEC titles; Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU, and Tennessee have won, or shared, all the rest. And, since 1992, those same five schools have also won 11 national championships.

Please don’t misunderstand me; I’m not trying to bash UGA football, and this isn't a “fire Coach Richt” rant. There are plenty of programs, and their fans, that would love to have the level of success that we do have. I’m also not here to try and explain the “why”, or offer a quick-fix solution. I’m just acknowledging that “it is what it is” and I’m sharing about learning to accept that reality.

I will still bleed red and black. Glory, Glory to Ole’ Georgia will still make the hair on the back of my neck stand up. And, I will still reserve the right to get down on all four and bark like a dog. I've just changed my perspective a little. Now, my hope is that we’ll win a handful of SEC championships and one more national championship in my lifetime, instead of in the next five years.