How Many School Shootings?

When you hear the words “school shooting” what kind of scenario comes to your mind?  Perhaps you’re like me and you imagine a crazed gunman, armed with multiply weapons and extra ammunition, coming into a school with the specific intent to shoot as many students and support staff as possible, leaving multiple dead and wounded in his wake.  Names like Columbine, Sandy Hood, and Parkland spring to mind.  However, CNN has a broader, or perhaps looser, definition.  You may have read or heard the claim that the recent Santa Fe shooting was 

THE 22^nd SCHOOL SHOOTING THIS YEAR!  MORE THAN ONE A WEEK!

I am not being dismissive of the deaths or injuries described below (okay, #14 and #15 yes, and maybe #9).  I’m just asking that you look at these 17 incidents and decide for yourself whether you think they fit into the public’s current perception of a school shooting.  If they don’t, then I think the logical question to ask is:  why would CNN and others want to exaggerate the problem by over 300%?  Is there an agenda that benefits from grossly overstating this issue?

#1 - January 20: Winston Salem, North Carolina

A Winston-Salem State University football player was shot at a party at “The Barn” which is an event space located on the campus of Wake Forest University.  Police say a fight broke out and that's when the victim was fatally shot.  There were an estimated 475 people in attendance, including non-students.  [WFMY News]

#2 - January 22: Italy, Texas

“A 15-year-old girl who was wounded in the Italy High School shooting is ‘in good spirits,’ and the 16-year-old boy suspected of opening fire in the cafeteria has been charged as a juvenile with aggravated assault. . . .  [A student at the school] said the girl who was shot had moved to the school district a few months earlier. She said the girl had briefly dated the suspect, but that she did not know much about her.  [The] Ellis County sheriff . . . said authorities would inquire about any dating history involving the two as part of the investigation.”  [Associated Press]

#3 - January 31: Philadelphia

“[A] 32-year-old man . . . was shot and killed outside Lincoln High School in the Mayfair section of Philadelphia. . . .  911 calls came in reporting a large fight and shots fired in the school's parking lot around 3:51 p.m.  [The victim] was shot and mortally wounded in the parking lot during a school basketball game.  Police say there was an enormous fight outside among dozens of people. Many believed to be students from rival schools.”  [WPVI-TV]

#4 - February 1: Los Angeles

“A 12-year-old girl faces two felony counts in connection with a shooting at a middle school that left four students and an adult injured, the Los Angeles County District Attorney's office said Friday.  ‘This continues to be an active investigation,’ according to an LAPD statement. ‘However, at this time, the information suggest [sic] that this was an isolated incident, involving the negligent discharge of a firearm. . . .’”  [CNN]

#5 - February 5: Oxon Hill, Maryland

“Prince George’s County Police detectives identified and charged two teenagers in connection with a non-fatal shooting outside of Oxon Hill High School on Monday.  The teenage victim, who is a student at the school, was treated and released from the hospital several hours later.  The preliminary investigation reveals the victim got into an SUV with the suspects. While inside of the SUV, the victim was shot.  [R]obbery may be a motive in this case.”  [PGPD News]

#6 - February 9: Nashville

According to police, a 14 yo student, who was acquainted with victim, shot him five times outside Pearl-Cohn High School Friday just after dismissal at 2:30 p.m.  The 17 yo victim was not a student at Pearl-Cohn but instead at W.A. Bass Learning Center.  [WSMV.com]

#7 - February 24: Savannah, Georgia

“A person was shot on the campus of Savannah State University and taken to a nearby hospital where he later died. Neither the victim nor the shooter were university students. . . .”  [CNN]

#8 - February 27: Itta Bena, Mississippi

“Mississippi Valley State University officials say one person, who is not a student, suffered a gunshot wound just before 7 p.m. Tuesday night in the Charles Lackey Recreation Center on the MVSU Campus.  Early reports indicate there was a disagreement between a small group and at some point, one of them fired a weapon.”  [WTVM.com]

#9 - February 27: Norfolk, Virginia

“[A student] said he was in his room doing homework around 1 a.m. when he heard a loud noise from an adjacent dorm room and noticed he had been shot in the behind.  [The student] was taken to the hospital for non-life threatening injuries but has since been released.  There were no other injuries.”  [News 3]

#10 - March 2: Mount Pleasant, Michigan

“A Michigan college student [was] accused of killing his parents at a campus residence hall . . . following a family-related domestic dispute at Central Michigan University, authorities said.”  [CNN]

#11 - March 7: Jackson, Mississippi

A student was shot inside a dormitory at Jackson State University.  His injuries were not life-threatening.  [CNN]

#12 - March 7: Birmingham, Alabama

One student was killed and another critically wounded after an accidental (according to police) shooting during dismissal time at Huffman High School.  [CNN]

#13 - March 8: Mobile, Alabama

One person, who was not a USA student, was hospitalized after a shooting, at around 7:30 p.m., at an apartment building on the campus of the University of South Alabama.  [AL.com]

#14 - March 13: Seaside, California

A teacher accidentally discharged a gun during a public safety class at Seaside High School.  The teacher “pointed his gun into the ceiling and accidentally fired it. . . .  A 17-year-old student was injured by a bullet fragment or by debris that fell from the ceiling. . . .  The injuries appeared superficial, police said.”  [CNN]

#15 - April 9: Gloversville, New York

A high school student shot another high school student with a BB gun at Gloversville Middle School.  “The alleged victim . . . suffered a minor injury of bruising and pain, according to police.”  The incident happened in a Monday, but wasn’t reported to school officials or the police until the next day.  [The Daily Gazette]

#16 - April 12: Raytown, Missouri 

A man (not identified as school staff, or even a parent) received a non-fatal gunshot to the stomach while in the parking lot of Raytown South Middle School.  The incident took place during a track meet that was being held after regular school hours.  [KCTV News]

#17 - April 20: Ocala, Florida

“A student was wounded in a shooting Friday morning at a high school in Ocala, Florida. . . .  The incident occurred shortly before students were to walk out as part of a national protest against gun violence.  The 17-year-old Forest High School student, who was shot in the ankle, was in good condition at a hospital with a wound not considered life threatening, officials said.  The suspect . . . was . . . a former Forest High School student. . . .  The motive is unclear.”  [CNN]

Suggestions on Law Enforcement Encounters

I am a white, middle-aged male, who lives in the South.  Now some people would say that the first factor (skin color) is more than enough for me to get a pass in the eyes of local law enforcement, with factors two through four (age, gender, and location) just being bonus points.  Well, all I know is I’ve been stopped three times in the last year and a half, and that’s three times more than the previous 30 years.  And, even assuming that I’m the beneficiary of some positive law enforcement bias (either conscious or subconscious), I still try to act in an overt manner that reassures the officer that I’m not a potential threat. 

All three stops were at night and I did the same thing:  put the vehicle in park; turn the interior light on; turn the radio off; roll all four windows down; hands on the steering wheel at 10:00 & 2:00.  On one stop, I was pulled over a few blocks from the office.  Once the officer got to my window and saw my face, he reported over the radio to his Sergeant that I worked in that building, and that’s why my vehicle was seen pulling out of the back parking lot.  That was the end of the encounter.   

On the other two stops (brake light out on one, headlight out on the other, and no I didn’t know about either one at the time) it went something like this:

Officer – Good evening.  I’ve stopped you because your brake/head light is out.  May I see your driver’s license?

Me – Yes.  It is in my right rear pocket; may I reach for it.

Officer – Sure, go ahead.

Me – (with hands still at 10:00 & 2:00 on the steering wheel) To do that I’ll have to reach around my firearm (concealed by a shirt/jacket) on my right hip. 

City Police Officer – [kind of chuckled] OK.  Georgia State Trooper – Don’t show me yours and I won’t show you mine [totally casual and non-threatening tone].

Both times I drove off with a verbal admonition to get the light replaced, and without a ticket.

I’ve been told that in my state, if you have a Georgia Weapons Carry License, it shows up when they run your tag.  I don’t know if that’s accurate or not.  My point is that two nighttime encounters between a LEO and an armed citizen ended without issue.  I wasn’t ordered out of my vehicle; I didn’t get thrown across the hood, or manhandled to the ground.  And, if I had been instructed to do anything by the officer, I would have complied, regardless of whether I thought he was acting properly or not.  The side of the road is not the place to adjudicate your case.

And, it should go without saying, but regrettably it doesn’t, so… DON’T TRY TO FIGHT THE POLICE.  I hereby make a standing offer of $100.00 for any and all verifiable stories of citizens fighting with law enforcement that end with the LEO saying “You know what?  You were right and I was wrong.  I’m glad you fought me until I realized the error of my ways.  You’re free to go and have a good evening.”

Mark Ricth and the Trifecta of Regret

I think the football fortunes of the Georgia Bulldogs under Mark Ricth can be summed up in three words:  shoulda; coulda; and, woulda.  Of course, the proper syntax would be “should have”, “could have”, and “would have”, but I’m going to use the local vernacular, and a conversational style as well.  Also note that two of the three words often appear in conjunction with each other.

 

“In his first year, and first head coaching job, I woulda been happy with just about anything.  So, an 8-4 record, and a win over Tennessee, is pretty nice.”

“In 2002, #5 Georgia shoulda beaten #22 Florida, and 1st year head coach, Ron Zook.  Then maybe our 2^nd year coach woulda been leading us to a National Championship, instead of just the SEC Championship.”  (2^nd year coach, Jim Tressel won it all with Ohio State that year.)

“I know we won the East, and two of our three loses in 2003 were to the eventual national champion, LSU, under Coach Nick Saban in his 4^th season, but we really shoulda beaten Florida that year.”

“Ok, in 2004 maybe #5 UGA coulda beaten #3 Auburn; maybe not.  But, there’s no way we shoulda lost the game, and the East, to #17 Tennessee when we were ranked #3 at the time.”

“I wish we coulda live up to our rankings in 2005.  Instead, we lost to #16 Florida when we were ranked #4.  #15 Auburn beat us when we were ranked #9.  And then #11 West Virginia took a lot of the luster off of our SEC title, and #8 ranking, by beating us in the Sugar Bowl.”

“Yes, Florida beat us again, and won the National Championship in 2006 in Urban Meyer’s 2^nd season.  But, we coulda beaten Tennessee, and there’s no way we shoulda lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and ended up 4^th in the East.”

“If we coulda won either the South Carolina or the Tennessee game in 2007, then we woulda been SEC East champs, playing eventual National Champion LSU, and Les Miles in his 3^rd season.  Instead, we lost to two unranked teams while we were ranked #11 and #12.”

“2008 was the year that coulda been; preseason #1 in both the AP and the Coaches’ poll.  But, we’d already dropped to #3 before #8 Alabama hung 21 points on us in the first half of our first loss.  Then, #5 Florida whips us by 39 on the way to their 2^nd National Championship in three years.  And being ranked #13 apparently didn’t help in our loss to #18 Georgia Tech to end the regular season.”

“In 2009, Nick Saban led Alabama to a National Championship in his 3^rd season as the Tide’s head coach.  Meanwhile, we had our first five-loss season under Coach Ritch.  I know Oklahoma State, LSU, and Florida were ranked #9, #4, and #1 respectively when we lost to them; but, lower ranked, and even unranked, teams seem to be able to beat us when we have the higher ranking.  We coulda won at least one of those games.  And, we shoulda beaten Tennessee and Kentucky.”

“Is there’s anything we coulda done in 2010 that woulda made a difference.  While Gene Chizik is leading Auburn to the National Championship in only his 2^nd season as head coach, we stumbled to a 6-7 record in Coach Ricth’s 10^th year.  We lost to Central Florida in a bowl game in Memphis.  Who coulda imagined that?!”

“In 2011, despite opening loses to Boise State and South Carolina, 10-2 and East Champions (for the 1^st time in six years) looked pretty good at the time.  However, back-to-back losses in the SEC Championship and the Outback Bowl left us with a final record 10-4, and one more year of shoulda and coulda.”  (Meanwhile, across the state line to the west, the Tide was winning its 2^nd National Championship in three years.)

“Ahhh, the year 2012; the ultimate coulda and woulda season.  I’m not talking about the ‘How the @#$%& did we lose 35-7 to South Carolina?!’ game.  I’m talking about the SEC Championship game against Alabama.  How many times have you heard, or said, ‘If we coulda made that last completion, we woulda been playing Notre Dame in the National Championship.  And, we woulda beaten them!’”  (Instead, Coach Saban and Alabama go on to win their 2^nd national title in a row, and their 3^rd in four seasons.)

“Who woulda picked Missouri to win the Eastern Division in 2013, their second year in the SEC?  Maybe those same people picked us to lose to Mizzou, and Vanderbilt, on the way to the second 8-5 season in four years under Coach Ricth.  However, I’m not sure anyone woulda picked Auburn to play in its 2^nd National Championship in four years, under 1^st year coach, Gus Malzahn. But, they did!”

 

“Even though we hammered eventual East champion, Missouri 35-0, and shoulda been in control of our own destiny in 2014, we weren’t.  You woulda thought that being ranked in the top 10 meant that we coulda beaten either #24 South Carolina or unranked Florida.  Instead, they both beat us, and knocked us down to 2^nd in the East for the 5^th time in 14 years under Coach Ricth.”

“Hey, 9-3 doesn’t look that bad this year does it?  We lost to eventual West champ, and current #2, Alabama.  Then we lost our star back, and Heisman hopeful, on the first offensive play of our lost to Tennessee.  That’s a game we coulda won.  And then our last loss was to the eventual East champ, Florida, and 1^st year head coach, Jim McElwain.  But, I think we shoulda had wins against more than just two teams with winning records:  Southern, out of the SWAC; and, Georgia Southern out of the Sun Belt.”

I'd Rather Talk Football Than World Affairs Right Now

Almost immediately after Georgia’s victory over Auburn yesterday, the discussion turned to how we could end up with another 10-win season, if we beat Ga. Southern, Tech, and our bowl game opponent.  The Dawgs’ overall record is currently 7-3; 5-3 in conference play.  And, five years from now a 10-3 mark would probably look pretty good to a lot of people. [Aside - I think a little bit of the aura of 10 wins has been lost ever since we went from an 11 game regular season, plus a bowl game (10-2 = 83%), to a 12 game regular season (10-3 = 77%).]  However, if you look a little deeper right now, some disappointing statistics are revealed. 

As it stands today, Georgia’s five SEC wins are against the bottom four teams in the eastern division, and the last place team from the west.  Those five teams are currently 8-27 in conference play; with seven of those eight wins the result of beating each other.  None of the five can finish the season with a winning record in the conference.  And when you look at the overall record, it doesn’t get much better either.  Out of Georgia’s seven victories so far, only one is against a team with a winning record.  Southern University, out of the SWAC, is 6-4 with one regular season game left on its schedule. 

And yes, I know that two of our three loses were to the eastern division champ (#11 in the CFP) and the presumptive western division champ (#2 in the CFP), and both of those teams are currently 9-1.  And while I appreciates a “quality lose” as much as the next person, it isn’t really relevant to my theory, which is that one of the best ways to judge a team is to look at the winning percentage of the teams they’ve beaten.

IF (and yes, the “if” is in all caps on purpose) UGA, Auburn and Mizzou all win their remaining games, the Dawgs will finish the regular season at 9-3, with four victories over teams with a winning record.  But, if Auburn and Mizzou lose either one of their two remaining games, then the number drops to two.  And, if the Dawgs don’t beat Ga. Southern, the number of victories over teams with winning records remains at one, and Georgia’s regular season record would be 8-4.  Given that we’re 1-3 against teams with winning records so far this season, I wouldn’t be surprised (disappointed, but not surprised) to see us finish 9-4, or even 8-5.

We Have to Read and Think at the Same Time

     While researching the issue of the state of Tennessee’s use of a three question drug-use questionnaire, and follow-up drug testing, I found the following web article:  http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2015/02/10/3621267/tennessee-drug-tests-after-six-months/

     

     The first two sentences of the article read as follows:

 

Less than one half of one percent of Tennesseeans who applied for public assistance flunked a drug test in the first six months of the state’s experiment with drug screenings for welfare recipients, according to recently released state figures.

Out of more than 16,000 applicants from the beginning of July through the end of 2014, just 37 tested positive for illegal drug use.

     When you read those two sentences just now, did you think what I thought when I first read them?  My initial thought was Tennessee gave drug screens to over 16,000 applicants, and only 37 came back dirty?!  However, it’s in the first part of the third sentence that the writer, Alan Pyke, gives himself away, and actually reports the proper statistics:  “While that amounts to roughly 13 percent of the 279 applicants who the state decided to test based on their answers to a written questionnaire about drug use...”

     In other words, Tennessee didn’t test over 16,000 people and get 37 positives results, and 15, 963 negative results, the state tested 279 applicants and got 37 positive results.  That’s over 13%, or basically four (3.978) out of every thirty people screened.  And, that figure is over 61.5% higher that the state’s overall rate of drug use (8%) as stated in the article. 

     Now that's a headline that would jump off the page:  Public Assistance Applicants' Drug Use 61.5% Higher Than State Average  However, the author ends the third sentence by returning to his disingenuous apples to hubcaps comparison and writes “the overall rate among applicants is just 0.2 percent.”  

     Allow me to re-write the first three sentences with some different data to illustrate my point.  

  

Less than one half of one percent of all students enrolled at The University of Georgia passed the state bar exam on the first attempt in 2014, according to recently released state figures.

Out of more than 35,190 students on campus during the 2014 school year, just 155 passed the bar on their first attempt.   While that amounts to roughly 94 percent of the 165 law students who took the bar exam for the first time, the overall rate among all students is just 0.47 percent.

     See how that works?  The fact that over 15,700 applicants were never asked to take a drug screen in the first place is totally irrelevant to the author feigned statistics, just like the fact that over 35,000 UGA students never sat for the bar exam is irrelevant to mine.  Nice try though.

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs, version 2.1

OK, I think I've really got it this time.  The only change from version 2.0 is you take the number of wins and double it.  Everything else remains the same.

            So, with no further ado, here’s my final bracket:

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (23.1 PR) vs. #8 Arizona (15.5 PR)

#2 FSU (22.9 PR) vs. #7 Miss State (16.1 PR)

#3 Oregon (20.1 PR) vs. #6 TCU (16.6 PR)

#4 Ohio State (18.2 PR) vs. #5 Mizzou (17.3 PR)

Just on the outside looking in are #9 Baylor (15.2 PR), and #10 Ole Miss (14.5 PR).

If I Ran the College Football Play-offs, version 2.0

The criteria used to pick the eight teams would still be wins and losses (W/L), strength of schedule (SOS), and conference championship participation (CCP).  As stated in my first blog, the W/L of a team are easy to determine.  And, the SOS is still determined by wins and losses of opponents and the opponents of a team's opponents.  

However, one issue to be resolved, in developing a more accurate SOS rating going forward, is accounting for games against Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams.  I’d use a system that I read about online:  take that season’s cumulative win/loss record of all the FCS teams vs. Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams, and multiple it by 0.1.  For example, if that cumulative record was 28-76, then a record of 2.8 wins and 7.6 loses would be assigned to every FCS team that a FBS team played.

Then, as before, you take a team’s SOS ranking, multiple it by 0.1, add it to their losses, and then subtract it from their wins.  Now, here’s the major change from my first ranking system:  in every conference that has a championship game, the conference runner-up gets an additional 1.5.  Otherwise, the runner-up would end up with a lower play-off rating (PR) as a result of winning their division, but losing the conference title game.  The conference champion gets an additional 0.5, instead of 1.0 also. 

All that being said, here is my revised bracket, using the predictionmachine.com SOS rankings, effective Dec. 19^th, 2014:

Eight Team Play-off

#1 Alabama (11.1 PR) vs. T-#8 Arizona (5.5 PR)

#2 FSU (9.9 PR) vs. #7 TCU (5.6 PR)

#3 Oregon (8.1 PR) vs. #6 Miss. State (6.1 PR)

#4 Mizzou (7.3 PR) vs. #5 Ohio State (6.2 PR)

T-#8 Ole Miss (5.5 PR) is out under the 2^nd tie-breaker - division or conference winner.  (1st - head to head; 3^rd - SOS)  And, 10-3, SEC runner-up, Mizzou, is ranked ahead of 12-1, Big 10 champion, Ohio State, because of OSU’s relatively weak SOS.  At 53^rd, OSU’s SOS has the same weight as 5.3 losses.  Also, with a SOS at 58^th, and no conference championship game, 11-1, Big 12 co-champion, Baylor, ends up at #12, with a 4.2 PR.  That puts them behind #10 Georgia Tech (5.0 PR), and #11 UGA (4.5 PR).