Almost immediately after Georgia’s victory over Auburn yesterday,
the discussion turned to how we could end up with another 10-win season, if we beat
Ga. Southern, Tech, and our bowl game opponent.
The Dawgs’ overall record is currently 7-3; 5-3 in conference play. And, five years from now a 10-3 mark would
probably look pretty good to a lot of people. [Aside - I think a little bit of
the aura of 10 wins has been lost ever since we went from an 11 game regular season,
plus a bowl game (10-2 = 83%), to a 12 game regular season (10-3 = 77%).] However, if you look a little deeper right
now, some disappointing statistics are revealed.
As it stands today, Georgia’s five SEC wins are against the
bottom four teams in the eastern division, and the last place team from the
west. Those five teams are currently 8-27
in conference play; with seven of those eight wins the result of beating each
other. None of the five can finish the
season with a winning record in the conference.
And when you look at the overall record, it doesn’t get much better
either. Out of Georgia’s seven victories
so far, only one is against a team with a winning record. Southern University, out of the SWAC, is 6-4
with one regular season game left on its schedule.
And yes, I know that two of our three loses were to the
eastern division champ (#11 in the CFP) and the presumptive western division
champ (#2 in the CFP), and both of those teams are currently 9-1. And while I appreciates a “quality lose” as
much as the next person, it isn’t really relevant to my theory, which is that one
of the best ways to judge a team is to look at the winning percentage of the
teams they’ve beaten.
IF (and yes, the “if” is in all caps on purpose) UGA, Auburn
and Mizzou all win their remaining games, the Dawgs will finish the regular
season at 9-3, with four victories over teams with a winning record. But, if Auburn and Mizzou lose either one of
their two remaining games, then the number drops to two. And, if the Dawgs don’t beat Ga. Southern,
the number of victories over teams with winning records remains at one, and
Georgia’s regular season record would be 8-4. Given that we’re 1-3 against teams with
winning records so far this season, I wouldn’t be surprised (disappointed, but
not surprised) to see us finish 9-4, or even 8-5.
